This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels The Villans' Unlikely Title Charge

A mere two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Manager's Celebration of Joy

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

  • The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Teresa Spears
Teresa Spears

Helena Voss is a financial strategist and author with over 15 years of experience in wealth management.