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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."